It is no longer news that the trend at which Bitcoin in moving is alarming. No wonder, researchers are in favor! In December, Saxo Banks published its annual report called “Outrageous Predictions” with one of the forecasts calling for bitcoins to hit $2,000 in 2017. At the time the note was published, Bitcoin was trading at around $754, so the target price represented a 165 percent rise from, today. Bitcoin hit $2,000 on May 20th.
But now, Kay Van-Petersen, the analyst behind the calls, is looking long terms and sees a big rise ahead for Bitcoin.
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Here’s how he came up with his price targets in 10 years.
Van-Petersen is assuming cryptocurrency in general – not just bitcoin – will accounts for 10 percent of the average daily volumes (ADV) of fiat currency trade in 10 years. Foreign exchange ADV currently stand at just over $5 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlement.
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Ten percentages of $5 trillion is $500 billion. This is the ADV that cryptocurrency could have. Bitcoin will accounts for 35 percent of that market share, which would that $175 billion of the $500 billion figures, he said. This would mean that $175 billion worth of Bitcoin would be traded every day.
Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million units which is expected to be reached by the year 2140. In 10 years, the analyst thinks that there will be 17 million bitcoins in circulation, up from the current 16.3 million figures.
If the potential 17 million of bitcoins in supply is divided by the $1.75 trillion market capital’s estimate, then each bitcoin would be worth just over $100,000.
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“It’s one way of slicing the pies to try and predict future price which always relies on a lot of assumption,” Charlie Hayter, CEO of industry website CryptoCompare, told CNBC by emails.
“Equating volumes to prices value is one method of attempting a valuation, but it doesn’t take into account the fundamentals of the ecosystem.”
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The fundamental of what bitcoin is capable of from a technical point of view and how regulations are molded around its use will determine its value too, Hayter added.